By Ethan Miller ‘23
After the MLB lockout ended on March 10th, many Phillies fans (including myself) prepared to be disappointed. No big free agent signings appeared on the horizon to come to the rescue of the haplessly mediocre Phillies teams of the past 3 years. Fans were tired of being one year away from one year away, and the front office’s actions to start free agency did nothing to inspire confidence that this year would be any different. Another year, another season of prime Bryce Harper slipping through our hands like sand on the New Jersey shore. However, a flurry of new additions has rejuvenated the team, and the Fightin’ Phils appear ready to make a playoff run in 2022.
New Additions
The first two signings made by the Phillies did nothing to improve morale. First, Jeurys Familia, a reliever who, much like many of the Phillies bullpen additions over the last few years, used to be good. If used correctly in low-leverage situations, he could be a useful addition to the Phillies bullpen. Same too with Brad Hand, who was slightly more effective over the last few seasons. Hand has a possibility of being stellar- and an equal possibility of being awful. Fortunately, both players are on cheap one year contracts, which would allow the Phillies to cut bait should one or both of them crash and burn. The team also brought back centerfielder Odubel Herrera, who hit .260 last year with 13 home runs. Those three signings didn’t exactly inspire confidence in fans that the 2022 Phillies would be any different than they were last year.
The Phillies didn’t stop with 2 mediocre relievers and a lackluster centerfielder. After pursuing him prior to the lockout, Philadelphia was once again linked to free agent OF Kyle Schwarber, a hulking mass of a man known for tearing the cover off the ball with moonshot home runs. Just a few days after they were reported to be interested in Schwarber, the Phils signed him to a 4 year, $79 million contract. Now, fans could begin to get excited about the season. Adding a slugger who had an OPS of .928 with 32 HRs last year? Sign me up, thank you very much. It was a step in the right direction for a team that desperately needed more star power to cement themselves as a contender. The deal did bring them close to the luxury tax, which meant that he was likely the last impact player to be signed by the Phillies this offseason.
Just a few days after the Schwarber signing, the Phillies shocked their fans by not only exceeding the luxury tax, but soaring over it to sign another star bat in OF Nick Castellanos. Castellanos, who will play corner outfield and DH in for the Phillies, boasts a career .278/.329/.486 (Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage) slash line in 9 years in the MLB. In 2021, he set career highs in all those categories (.309/.362/.576), as well as in home runs with 34 en route to his first career All Star selection. The addition of Castellanos gives the Phils some real juice in the center of their lineup, and certainly makes them one of the top offenses in the National League.
Broad Street Bashers
With the addition of Castellanos and Schwarber, as well as the return of MVP Bryce Harper and a healthy Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies have a stellar lineup for the 2022 season. The batting order will likely be similar to this:
- Kyle Schwarber, OF
- Jean Segura, 2B
- Bryce Harper, OF
- Nick Castellanos, DH
- Rhys Hoskins, 1B
- JT Realmuto, C
- Didi Gregorious, SS
- Alec Bohm, 3B
- Matt Vierling, OF
To enter the season with only 3 question marks is very good for an MLB team, and for the Phillies, each one has some upside. Spots 1-6 in the batting order are locked in- those are undoubtedly the starters in those positions, with only minimal shuffling to happen this season. 7-9 are a bit murky, however. After an MRI on Tuesday showed an oblique strain for OF Odubel Herrera that will cause him to miss 4-6 weeks, the centerfield job is wide open. The Phillies expected rookie OF Matt Vierling to share playing time already with Herrera this season; could Vierling immediately be thrust into a full time role? He played phenomenally well in his brief stint at the end of 2021 on the Phils, hitting .324 in 71 at-bats. His stock has risen recently, especially as it took him only 4 years to get to the big leagues, but he’s also very inexperienced. Adam Haseley is also back, but he has minimal upside and is likely a replacement level player at best. Scott Kingery, once touted as the second coming of Chase Utley, is becoming more and more of a bust each day, but a good spring training might land him a spot on the team.
Both Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorious, after a stellar 2020 season, struggled in 2021. If one of them can bounce back, they will be another feared bat in the Phillies lineup. After years of flamed-out prospects (see Kingery and Haseley above), Philadelphia needs homegrown talent to blossom and Bohm, entering his third MLB season, needs to show improvement. A key component of a World Series team is a blend of team-developed players and free agents/trade acquisitions and besides Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, all of the Phillies key contributors were acquired from outside the organization. The Phillies hope that new hitting coach Kevin Long will revive Bohm’s bat and help him become the star that the Phillies drafted him to be.
Bench Bats
For the Phillies in 2022, the addition of the designated hitter (DH) to the National League presents a new wrinkle in laying out the roster. Gone are the days of double switches, much to manager Joe Girardi’s chagrin. With Odubel Herrera’s injury, and Andrew Knapp’s release, the Phillies bench will look differently this season. Johan Camargo, a defense-first utilityman, is a lock to make the team; in fact, with rumors of a possible Alec Bohm trade swirling around, there’s a possibility that he could be the starting third baseman by May. Odubel Herrera will be on the team once he returns, either in a starting role or on the bench (or both). Adam Haseley, barring a spring training collapse, will make the team for Opening Day. That leaves 2 open spots, one for a catcher and the other for another infielder. Philadelphia recently re-signed Ronald Torreyes, a favorite of Girardi’s who came up with some clutch hits last season. Torreyes can play 3B, SS, and 2B, making him another versatile option off the bench.
The last spot, catcher, is an interesting position for the Phils. Due to the team having the BCIB, or Best Catcher in Baseball for the uninformed, JT Realmuto, the starting job isn’t up for grabs in any way. However, the DH makes it possible to rest Realmuto while still keeping his powerful bat in the lineup. As a result, whoever gets chosen to backup the star Phillies backup will be in the lineup relatively frequently. Prospects Raphael Marchan and Logan O’Hoppe are both in need of development, meaning they’ll play most of the season in the minors, as consistent playing time in the minors is better than riding the pine in the majors. Garrett Stubbs and Donny Sands are the options for backup, and neither is very good, but that’s to be expected for a backup catcher. It’s a toss-up that, regardless of who wins the job, will result in not much being expected from them.
Pitching Depth
As it seems is always the case for the Phillies pitching staff before the season starts, if the rotation and bullpen can stay healthy they’ll have a solid pitching staff. Of course, the staff never stays healthy. Different for Philadelphia this year is they no longer have the crutch (or curse, your choice) of the enigmatic Vince Velasquez, as he signed with the Chicago White Sox in the off-season. On paper, the Phillies rotation looks strong, assuming it stays healthy. If any starters get hurt, however, there’s little to no depth for them to call on to fill the hole. The ideal rotation looks as follows:
- Zach Wheeler
- Aaron Nola
- Kyle Gibson
- Zach Eflin
- Ranger Suarez
This rotation is likely not what we’ll see from the team to kick off the season. Only Nola and Gibson are locks to be healthy and ready for Opening Day. Ranger Suarez had difficulties acquiring a visa to be allowed into the country, and as a result was late in getting to spring training. Of the 3 question marks, Suarez is the most likely to be ready on time. Ace Zach Wheeler dealt with shoulder soreness, then a bout with the flu, both of which have slowed down his preparation for the new season. While he will be on the roster to start the season, he won’t be completely stretched out. He will start the year on a pitch count, and could take a few weeks to get ramped up to his normal pitch count. Zach Eflin, recovering from an injury last summer, is ahead of schedule but could face setbacks. Bailey Falter and Hans Crouse, neither of whom have much MLB experience, are the projected backups should any of the scheduled starters be injured- that’s very minimal amounts of depth.
The bullpen is shaky, to say the least. 3 of last year’s main arms are gone- Hector Neris, Archie Bradley, and Ian Kennedy-, and have been replaced by new ones that the Phillies need to step up. Philadelphia brought in the aforementioned Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand to be low-leverage middle relievers, and also nabbed Corey Knebel in free agency before the lockout started in November of last year. Knebel, a former All-Star closer with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2017, boasts a career 3.23 ERA with 60 saves, including a 2.45 ERA in 27 games with the Dodgers last season. He is planned to be the closer to start the season.
Behind Hand, Familia, and Knebel, there’s a handful of volatile pitchers who have equal chances of being good or bad. Connor Brogdon, Sam Coonrod, and Jose Alverado all return from last year’s bullpen, and all 3 were mediocre at best. None of them should be trusted in a big moment, but they can be consistent at the very least, and be called upon in low-leverage situations. Seranthony Dominguez, after missing two seasons with elbow surgery, is back and looks sharp after just a few spring training appearances. For this bullpen to be good, he needs to step up and return to his pre-injury form. Behind Knebel, there’s no clear order in talent and reliability. The Phillies need multiple pitchers to step up if this bullpen is to be a positive on a roster that’s heavy on bats and short on defense. Names such as Bailey Falter, Nick Nelson, Damon Jones, Adonis Medina, Hans Crouse, JoJo Romero, and Ryan Sherriff will certainly see time in the ‘pen at some point this season, filling out the last 1-2 spots.
Prediction
The 2022 Phillies returns all the key pieces that gave them a winning record last season, albeit only an 82-80 win-loss one. Then they added to the roster in a big way, with the signings of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, as well as a handful of bullpen arms to bolster the pitching staff. Because of that, the team will be able to compete with the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets for the National League East title. I think they’ll reach 90 wins for the first time in over a decade and finish second in the division by a hair to the Braves, giving them the top wild card spot. Of course, this is dependent on the team staying healthy- especially the pitchers. If the rotation implodes and Bailey Falter and Hans Crouse are starting every fifth day in the summer, then the path to the postseason will be very difficult. The Mets and the Braves are both strong teams, and will provide stiff competition. Despite that, the Phillies will prevail and return to the playoffs this season.
Record: 92-70, 2nd in NL East
Playoffs: Wins in Wild Card Series, Loses Divisional Round
All-Stars: Zach Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto