By Nicolas Storer Rios ‘28
Lancaster County’s voting history, at all levels, is dominated by the Republican Party. Since 1964, no party has come close to winning the county at the presidential level. Recent years, however, have shown that the county is not unwinnable for the Democratic Party.
History of Lancaster County voting patterns
The last (and first since 1856) time the Democratic Party has won Lancaster County was in 1964, which Lyndon B. Johnson won by under a point in an election where the state of Pennsylvania voted for Johnson by over 30 points. In the decades following that election, Lancaster County was one of the most Republican counties in the state.
In 1968, Lancaster County was the 5th most Republican county in Pennsylvania. In 1972, the 3rd (with over 75% of voters going Republican). The Democratic Party did not manage over 30% of the vote from 1968 to 2004.
County demographics
Lancaster County’s Republican strength is in part due to its large non-Catholic Germanic descent. For example, one famous group that Lancaster is known for, the Amish, are overwhelmingly (>95%) Republican. In fact, in a 2024 survey conducted by Elizabethtown College, just 10 Amish people out of the entire Lancaster County population were registered Democrats.
One aspect of the Amish as a voting bloc is that they are generally apolitical. In the 2024 presidential election, only about 15% of total Amish adults took part in the election. The sentiment behind the Amish vote, however, is not dissimilar to other European descent groups, and in combination with a very large farming economy and no large center of population (until present day Lancaster City), led the county to vote very strongly for the Republican Party.
Recent voting patterns
In 2008, registered Democrats in Lancaster County exceeded 100,000 for the first time in history. In the presidential election of that same year, the Democratic Party received 40% of voters for the first time since Johnson’s 1964 victory. Since then, the Democratic percentage of votes has stayed somewhat stagnant, decreasing somewhat in 2012 and 2016, then increasing in 2020 and 2024. Lancaster County was one county in the 2024 election that did not shift significantly for the Republican Party, despite the nation as a whole shifting 6 points towards it.
In state-level politics, Democrats have also seen increased success. In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the Republican Party received under 50% of the vote as the Democrats came within a point of winning the county. In a 2025 special election, Democrat Josh Malone became the first of the party to represent Lancaster County in the Pennsylvania State Senate, winning a district that Trump had won by 15 points in the prior year.
Democrats’ gains in Lancaster County are due both to the county’s population growth and nationwide trends. Lancaster County is one of the fastest growing populations in Pennsylvania. The population growth in and around Lancaster city has lent the Democratic Party a reliable voting base.
Additionally, nationwide trends have favored the Democratic Party in Lancaster County. Since 2016, voters in high-income, suburban counties have swung rapidly towards the Democratic Party. In neighboring Chester County, Democrats went from losing the county in 2012 to winning it by 14 points in 2024.
Voting forecast
In 2026, Lancaster County Democrats may benefit from discontent at the Trump presidency and governor Shapiro’s high approval ratings. Some political forecasters even have Shapiro winning Lancaster County, which would make him the first Democrat to win Lancaster County since 1990 (and before that, never) in a gubernatorial election.
It is to be seen if the Democratic Party’s gains in Lancaster County will be long-term and successful, but Lancaster County’s voting patterns are a clear view into the demographics behind politics.
Sources
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS
https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-politics-amish-voters/71269796